2026 Customs and trade outlook: key changes and challenges

Anthony Buckley, CEO of Anthony Buckley Consulting Ltd. and former Head of Ireland's Revenue Customs Service, gives a strategic overview of the key trade and customs developments expected in 2026, relevant to any EU-based trader or compliance professional trying to plan ahead.

Topics covered:

• Worldwide trade trends and whether reports of "the end of globalisation" are exaggerated
• The 2025 expansion of BRICS and the growth of Asian and Chinese-led free trade and investment agreements (including RCEP)
• The state of EU trade negotiations, including the EU-Mercosur agreement and its ratification status
• Structural challenges facing the EU's ability to negotiate and ratify trade deals quickly
• The EU's 2026 regulatory agenda: CBAM, the deforestation regulation, the forced labour regulation, the EU single window/Certex project, VAT simplification for small cross-border sellers, the new UCC (Union Customs Code), and new e-commerce/distance-selling rules
• US tariff policy: the rise in effective US tariff rates through 2025, statements by US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and the international reaction
• Broader geopolitical risks for 2026: US diplomatic isolation, the weakening of multilateral institutions, and EU internal cohesion
• Practical recommendations for businesses to prepare for rapid change in 2026

For a broader overview of the topic, please watch the full recording. The slides are available in the Resources section.

Please note that this summary was generated using AI, based on the recording and available slides.